Thursday, September 4, 2008

Bush and Putin fire off last shots ...

Notes:

Russia tests long-range 'stealth' nuclear missile as Putin accuses U.S. of causing Georgia conflict Last updated at 11:57am on 29.08.08
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23547123-details/Russia+tests+long-range+'stealth'+nuclear+missile+as+Putin+accuses+U.S.+of+causing+Georgia+conflict/article.do

Paola Totaro in London | August 29, 2008 - 7:54Ahttp://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/world/putin-blames-us-for-georgian-war/2008/08/29/1219516698684.html
---
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/georgia-crisis-a-bush-conspiracy-says-putin/1257820.aspx


Simon Tisdall The Guardian, Tuesday July 11 2006
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2006/jul/11/world.foreignpolicy

Thursday, August 14, 2008

War in Georgia grinding down. Let the real battle begin.

POST: notes-updated 082208

Now that it appears that Russia is pulling out from Georgia, it has stood firm on relinquishing it's hold on the new countries of Abkhazia and S.Ossessia. Maybe these people do want to leave from Georgia. Certainly recent history shows a lot of tension. So what happens?

Negotiations with Iran and the IAEA and a recent Military agreement with Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. It appears like the Russians are attempting to change the balance of power.

Does this look like an opening salvo to peace negotiations or possibly a foreshadowing of a new wider, deadlier, conflict with 2 super powers at the helm (again)? Has it already widened to far?

Where does (D) Barack Obama and (R) John McCain stand on this issue? Why are they not pursuing this as a major issue in their campaign? While the US wallows in economic brinksmanship, the Middle east heats up.

Russia has opened up a sustained and blanket all out propaganda campaign utilizing Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, President Dmitriy Medvedev, and Senior Russian military commanders. This is an orchestrated event. They are confident that nothing can come of this.

Russia has very publicly firmed up it's stance on where it wants to be perceived on the world military stage. Russia underlined its right to a “preventive” nuclear strike this week. They have signed on to the Bush Doctrine.

reference:
Russia: Choose us or choose Georgia.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/13/us.russia.diplomacy/index.html

Top Brass Defends Russia’s Right to Preemptive Strike
http://www.infowars.com/?p=3955
Anna Arutunyan
Moscow News
August 13. 2008


pending 082108 ...

Friday, August 8, 2008

POST: Campaign 2008.
Russia military action in S. Ossetia and Georgia - UPDATE: 081508

Subject:
Measuring response from the Barack Obama Presidential campaign as it relates to US / Russian Policy.

In response to the following statement:
(posted at: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/13/candidates.georgia/index.html#cnnSTCText)


"We cannot shoot from the hip," Susan Rice, Obama's senior foreign policy adviser told MSNBC on Tuesday. "We cannot act on the basis of ideology or preconceived notions. When this crisis began, Sen. Barack Obama, the administration ... and all of our NATO allies took a measured and reasoned approach because we were dealing with the facts as we knew them."


Analysis:
The only thing that can be verified here is that Sen. Obama oddly agrees with George Bush on a foreign policy matter (note: Using NATO as cover). Otherwise, this is not true and shows a lack of understanding, on the spot, of a potentially far reaching crisis. (note: campaign shift response.)

(note: The US has been mediating between the countries for the past 2 years. The Israelie (Private Contractor) Military advisor's were ordered to leave the country in April of 2008. These advisor's have been quoted in the popular press saying that the Georgians they encountered expected this current action.

(note: *** Sen. John McCain)

ongoing...

also see:
U.S.: Tracking Russia-Georgia war frustrating
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26193454/
White House concedes understanding of crisis hindered by lack of resources

Monday, July 28, 2008

NEWS: Will the US hit Iran? Is Putin using the Beijing Olympics as cover?

Is NATO's credibility at stake? Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has appelaed for US aid in the name of Democracy. Putin and Bush are at the Olympics and Bush has been briefed by Putin. What did they discuss?

Will the US hit Iran as a response and look to use the games and this action as cover?

Will Russia's "Invasion" of Georgia be the spark that lit the Global powder Keg ?


more:
Update- Putin: "War has started" between Russia and Georgia
by Sanjay Jha
http://www.nowpublic.com/world/update-putin-war-has-started-between-russia-and-georgia

more:
Georgia Key to Democracy Building in Caucasus
http://voanews.com/english/2008-08-05-voa48.cfm

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Syria and Iran have a plan ...

Notes:
Why such Peace moves from Assad as Olmert is being drummed out of politics forever? Assad has said publicly that he is aware of the charges against the Prime Minister and would wait out the Bush administration (Assad would never hand Bush a deal let alone stand with him in the Rose Garden!). Why not stop the process now all together? Are they afraid of Bibi and war? A preemptive strike by the US / Israel against Iran? (which would not allow them to get the Golan Heights back anytime soon). Or is Syria pushing for a deal because they really want it as a "strategic" firing point for the next conflict and feel they can not control Israel and/or Iran? Or is this how it's being staged, for now, by Iran and Syria's common hatred for the US?
----What did Syria promise Iran? Iran had a few days of harsh criticism for Syria. Why no more? Is this a Trojan Horse?



--- Syria and Turkey and Israel end their trilateral secret negotiations.
Says Turkish Diplomat" We have done all that we can and it is now time for the
two sides to meet"

update: Turkey has since hosted new trilateral secret negotiations.

update - Syrian Diplomats: "We will wait until Bush leaves office for a final peace deal (not Olmert)."

Monday, May 12, 2008

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Notes: Middle East Report 042708

Working. updated.

Syria:
In yet another twist of Middle East Diplomacy, recent and very public peace overtures by Syria(Demanding public discussion with American mediators present)are on the table. President Assad has stated overtly that he will demand a document of Peace from Israel:
"Syria is demanding that Israel commit in writing to a withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for peace, Syrian President Bashar Assad told Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to the Qatari newspaper Al-Watan." http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/978301.html

This figures in with recent public expressions of peace with Israel.

Are the Syrians suddenly eager to get peace talks back on track as a way to derail the establishment of the tribunal?

"The tribunal was established despite all the obstacles it faced," he said. "It might be moving slowly, but we are sure that justice will prevail at the end."

[ On Lebanese-Syrian relations, Jumblatt said that the March 14 Forces have managed to lay down the nature of such relations, even if only theoretically and not practically. ]

Does the recent Democrat primaries have anything to do with this response in combination of the above?

What does Syria know that if real peace does come, extremist elements will see this as more of a Sunni decision? Has Syria been listening to or watching Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan? We even put Saudi Arabia in this discussion for the first time (amongst Arab Countries that have signed peace treaties).

Iran:
Attacks Syria for discussing peace with the US and Israel. http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/Iran/226298
Is this a ruse? Is there a fracture in the most recent warm relations with Syria? What happens when an American President is elected that wants communication to start / continue? Is this an attempt to stay the hardliner and exact concessions in negotiations? Whatever this means, Syria and Iran will now be in a position to step out of the shadows or further in. When their will be peace to avert war, there is no lasting peace.

Does Iran believe that Syria will bolt to its more natural allies and play both sides ? For now?

Saudi Arabia:
What happened to the Saudi plan for a comprehensive peace between Israel and the Arab states? Have the other states adapted the 1967 borders context as brought up by Saudi Arabia and are still establishing a verbal and cultural national group think? Even if Israel pulled back to the Pre 1967 borders, gave up East Jerusalem, pulled all settlements, do you think the Arab and Muslim populations would suddenly not hate Jews? (see: Hezbollah, HAMAS, Jihadists) Would Israel, as the perceived losers, feel as if their history is written yet again with another "tragedy?" How can Saudi Arabia really help the Jews (Israel)? Are they possibly the next Country to broker a peace deal (Jordan being the last)? Why can they not make a cultural overture?


Egypt:
Back in the seat again (did they ever actually leave?), they are the clear brokers when it comes to HAMAS in Gaza no matter what. Despite Egypt's recent clamp down on the Muslim Brotherhood (during recent elections - what ever happened to those allegations?), the Gaza Sinai border propaganda attempt(Egyptian president says Palestinians allowed in on his orders after gunmen destroy border wall. Article: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull&cid=1200572523339)
The Egyptians are again closing the border in response to the Blockade of Gaza.

Lebanon:
If Hezbollah is provided the ability to hold on to their weapons and army, determine War for the Lebanese, and provide Political hijinx at will, even with the handing over of the Shebba Farms, there will be no peace.

(On June 18, 2000, the United Nations affirmed that Israel had withdrawn its forces from Lebanon, in accordance with Resolution 425.[4] ) Hezbollah has been holding the country hostage as a Syrian proxy for years, now it does so with democratic politics.


Israel:
What do they want? What if BiBi is elected? Has this turned into a Holy War for the State by way of fear and defeat in recent wars? Have the HAMAS rocket attacks withered the resolve of the Israelie people into a defensive posture? Do they know this? Strategies such as targeted assassinations, informers, raids, incursions, and other responses have stemmed the tide, not won the war. What next?


ongoing ...
.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Post by 2007: Lebanon Assasination of Francois al-Hajj

Discussing:
Current assassination in Lebanon of senior army officer General Francois al-Hajj, leading candidate to take over as army commander when current commander General Michel Suleiman is elected president.
How can a world watch a struggle such as this and not discuss actual scenerio's? (coup de teat, Would a Western country accept such a climate for assassination’s? How does this climate compare to Israel's assassinations' of Leading HAMAS political and religious leaders?

Is this why it is being perpetrated? Do the assassins know this paradox? Yes.
Will this entrench stalemate that no surrounding countries can reverse (they are compliant in making it happen).

ongoing.

Friday, September 28, 2007

Peace conference Plot twists ... Part II and so on ...

Notes ... Ongoing.

Annapolis Peace Conf:
Over the past months, with the announcement of an intended peace conference, twists and turns and the real method to working on peace in the Middle East reveals itself ... Out of site of the public eye but speaking for the people ...
no matter how small ... Then leaking ideas to the Press and other trusted parties.
STATUS ongoing.

As the road to Israel and Palestine moves closer to the two state solution, so does the winds of power shift throughout the Middle East. Discussions stand on a series of status demands including, Jerusalem; refugees; settlers; and more.
Saudi Arabia has become the Arab broker / negotiator, replacing Egypt for now. Egypt effective in Gaza? Currently upending Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who tried.

1991 Madrid Peace Conference,
bilateral talks began in Washington between Israel and a non-P
1993 Oslo peace negotiations
2002 Saudi Initiative (1967 Border negotiations) via Arab League in 2002.

Did Syria and Saudi Arabia react as a counter weight to being "left behind?"
Does the Monarchy in Saudi Arabia fear being not at the table of a "Historic Moment?"

Syria:
Syria and Israel had reportedly (major Int. press) sorted out (logistically) the main issues to withdrawing from the Golan Heights several years ago. The last time Syria and Israel met, in Shepherdstown, WV in 1999/00 agenda's and major issues of dispute were laid out. (Press) All parties brought with them advisors, technicians, and military people to discuss the details and scope of border issues, border demarcation, legal, normalization, economics, and other details. Documentation? (PRESS)

Syria says she wants peace. Or is she a Trojan Horse? How is she explaining her actions to her Iranian Ally?

Friday, September 21, 2007

Opinion - War Drums keep rolling ...

Has the war started?

Is it possible that the first battle ground in the next World War is via proxy in Lebanon and Pakistan? Has it started? The most recent assassination of a Lebanese Member of Parliament and Chairman of Parliament’s Defense Committee Walid Eido in West Beirut’s Manara district, along with his son and four other people, the fourth such political murder in the past year, is witness to a trend. The majority grows weaker. In Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf plays a cat and mouse game with the rule of the Courts and Islamicists bent on his death. Martial law is now status quo.

In partial response, Israel's stunning, deliberate, genius, and extremely risky air raid on a Syrian position, now being described in the press by multiple Western sources as a "nuclear" meeting/exchange between North Korea and Syria.

The US then says they are ready to speak with the Syrians ...

Monday, September 10, 2007

Prepping for war .. the SPIN is on ...

War SPIN is in full effect ... Where is this headed?


- Israel penetrates Syrian Radar and is credited with "jamming" the signal. Their success demonstrates to Damascus and Tehran that their new Russian anti-air system leaves them vulnerable. Russian denies even selling them the systems...
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1301

- Syrian commentator Az a-Din Darwish wrote in an article published in an official Syrian newspaper that Syria has fought against Israel before, and is prepared to face any possibility.
"Syria possesses the experience and ability that make it ready for any possibility, as long as it has to do with land, sovereignty and respect," Darwish wrote in the Syrian newspaper "Tishrin."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/902758.html

- Everybody thought he was dead (or still is), but Osama bin Laden appears on a video confident, youthful, and providing a "Convert" or die offer just before the 9/11 anniversary. Will the world blink?

- Since July of 07, the US has had 3 carrier (Battle Groups) including PsyOps warriors preparing for war. The USS Enterprise, USS John C. Stennis, and USS Nimitz carrier strike groups are in the Gulf as well as the Mediterranean off the coast of Lebanon. If Iran is engaged, our thought is that Israel will have to provide strategic and punishing blows to Hezbollah and Hamas.

- Who will the allies be? India? Jordan? The Kurds? Egypt? Saudi Arabia? Kuwait?

* NOTE ** The USS Enterprise is the longest naval vessel in the world and carries 66 aircraft.


Ratching up the War talk with Iran .. It looks like the campaign, on since 2001 or 2005 depending on who you speak with, is now about to enter a critical phase ...
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/georgepacker/2007/08/if-there-were-a.html

Iranian government spokesman says the attempts by the nation's enemies to worry the neighboring states are part of their psychological warfare.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=20469§ionid=351020101


Using PsyOps in War ...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A45085-2000Feb28



... See next months post ... "Where it stops, nobody knows ... "

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Now everybody wants peace ... Or so they say.

Things are heating up ...
Their has been an increasing amount of references by Israel's neighbors telling the World Press that they want peace yet prepare for war. Out of the other side of their mouths comes blatent references to the final blow and destruction of Israel.

Since 1948 (re-establishment of Israel) the Arab world has tried to move forward:

1| The first approach was through religous but secular modernizing via a King. Jordan and Morocco are currently the two remaining. These regimes fell through corruption, greed, and brutal oppression of the people they were to serve.
2| Pan-Arabism (regional cooperation through the lense of nationalism) was next. Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser was the most successful. This cooperation as well as the blatent propaganda of their Armed forces exposed the deceit and eventual corruption that Pan-Arabism became.
3| At the same time, Arab socialism (Syria and Iraq) or Marxism (Algeria) were established via the USSR as a battle field during the cold war. All Marxist / socialist experiments have since failed (PLO) for the same reason. Deceit, corruption, and brutal oppression of local people.
4| Now we see the call of the Islamic Republic and their return to a strict code of Islam. This is becoming a fight between secularism and nationalism.

Are we witnessing a united front by Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria? Or a regional coup d'état by the Iranians and their pawns? Are the Shia moving against the Sunni's regionally under the cloak of the Palestinian cause and Arab Nationalism (No, Iran is not Arab)?

Will Lebanon fall in line (again) after the Pro Democracy government is finally vanquished? Is this why Hezbollah is toning down their rhetoric now?

Is this happening as part of a wider regional plan to draw the fruits of the ongoing war between the US and the Jihadists (that Iran is willing to use as bargaining chips)?

Looks like an all out Propaganda effort to us ...

UPDATES: MMP and PRESS Analysis PENDING



Hezbollah ...
Last update - 07:31 15/08/2007
Nasrallah: Hezbollah doesn't want another war with Israel
By Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondent and Agencies
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/893510.html


Syria ...
Last update - 14:07 15/08/2007
IDF general: Syrian army signaling Damascus does not want war
By Amos Harel, Barak Ravid, and Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondents
http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/893779.html


Iran
Last update - 09:45 18/04/2007
Ahmadinejad: Iran wants peace but would confront aggressors
By DPA, Reuters and Haaretz Service
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/850027.html

Iran
Ahmadinejad: Iran wants peace, security, progress in region
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2006/iran-060227-irna04.htm

Why Iran Wants War--Ahmadinejad & Co. starring in Armageddon
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1639947/posts

Khamenei Tells Berri U.S., Israel Will be Defeated in Lebanon
http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&EF9480DE83254480C2257227003C02CC





Do the Palastinians want Peace?
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/peres1
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2006/iran-060227-irna04.htm